::: Progressive Political Commentary :::
A nickel's worth of news plus my two cents.
I contacted Sherrod Brown's office today looking for confirmation on the Senate story.
It being President's day, no one was in and I left a message.
Stay tuned...
posted by CRK @ 2/21/2005 03:56:00 PM
16 comments
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16 Comments:
When you get a chance, use some of your free time to look at Senate Bill no. 24 in the Ohio General Assembly:
http://www.legislature.state.oh.us/bills.cfm?ID=126_SB_24
I love it when the "small government" party tries to take away my rights.
I just hope we can keep from having nasty primary fights here in Ohio on the Dem side.
I'm looking forward to the nastiness between Petro / Montgomery / Blackwell, though.
We need someome to step up and take on the SoS's race.
Bummer! I was really looking forward to a Sherrod run. I hope that Springer will run for the Senate seat. It will take a very special campaign to beat Dewine and thats what Jerry brings to the table. What are all of your thoughts on this??
Springer is damaged goods because of his TV show.
Even though he ends his shows with a strong moral message like "it's wrong to sleep with your girlfriend's mother," the GOP noise machine will never get past the chair throwing. If that doesn't work the tactic will change to something like "Jerry has made his career out of exploiting people..." Frankly, that's a pretty good argument and I think most Ohioans would go along with it.
I'm just not certain that Ohio will be willing to take a chance on someone like Springer. He works his ass off for the state party (and I think he should continue to do so) but his star quality is one that Ohio will reject.
I agree that he may be dammaged goods, on the surface. But, he has great ideas for the state. I met him last week in Youngstown and he still isnt sure what he is going to do. He did say that if he found a candidate that is better than him he will give his money to him/her and support them fully. The only person that i can see as being better, at the time, is Sherrod Brown. Don't you agree that it will take a very special campaign to beat Dewine ?
I do agree that it will take a very special campaign to beat Dewine. But I just can't bring myself to believe that Springer is the guy to do it. Maybe I'm not giving enough weight to the celebrity factor, but I can't imagine Springer siphoning off votes from the rural counties.
Sherrod on the other hand...
Another thing to think about is we don't yet know what the GOP wedge issue will be. Gay marriage seems to be off the table and I think tax cuts are wearing out their welcome given the current state of fiscal affairs.
None of this means that the GOP won't use either of those issues as the wedge, but basically I'm not sure what's on the GOP horizon. Maybe the generic, "values" argument... I just don't know yet. Someone will tip their hand soon though.
One thing is for sure: Whoever runs for Senate against DeWine must have a very good ground game. They'll need to identify local leaders all the way to the precinct level to have any chance of beating DeWine. The GOP have us outgunned in door-to-door politicking and Ohio won't see the same level of help from third parties like we did in 2004.
Ground game.
Absolutely! And that is where we all come in. I heard something just today that made me stop and think and I wallowed through Cuyahoga county election data for 2000.
"Decisions are made by those who show up."
Simple as that, really.
I fully agree with your argument and the whole "morals" as a wedge issue does worry me a bit. I just dont want a Sherrod Brown or any other candidate for that matter to turn out to be another Fingerhut.
We CAN win the ground game !! I was a team leader in Youngstown for ACT and i saw what we did and didn't do right. This movement is just beging !
Sorry to be a negative Nancy, but Mike Dewine is going to beat whoever we put up against him. I would like to see Springer up against him, as that would be the only possible chance as no one can say for sure how Jerry will be perceived by the voters of Ohio. Who knows, maybe he can get by on name recognition alone. Or he could get destroyed for his TV show and prostitute-buying-with-a-check past. None of those things matter too much to me and listening to Jerry, both in person and on the radio, it is clear to Springer has a good grasp of the issues and would make an excellenct representative.
All that being said, it would be a bad idea to run Ted Strickland, as he hails from a Republican district (only slightly) and it is unlikely that another Dem would be able to win the seat.
Well ...
If I had to make a choice, I'd put Springer in the Senate race against DeWine.
That is because to me, DeWine's seat isn't the highest or even in the top 3 races I feel we need to work on this cycle.
1) Governor, of course
2) Secretary of State
3) Ohio 14th District
4) Ohio 15th District
5) Senate Race
6) Auditor of State
I put Governor and SoS at the top because they are attainable and they are key to a long term redistricting issues (and that is was Auditor is in there). 2011 will be here before we know it!
Once I get through all the data, I can post exactly how Bush/Kerry did in Strickland's 6th district, but that will take quite a bit of time. We haven't even reached the 20th century, let alone the 21st, when it comes to the collection and dissemination of election data.
I hear ya; hard to believe that that data is not available yet...
Cook Partisan Voting Index* Rating of the 6th District= R + 1 (based on 2000)
*The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district percentage for the party nominee, compared to the national value for the party nominee. Based upon the two-party vote, the national values for 2000 are Bush 49.7% and Al Gore 50.3%. The positive value indicates 8a district with a partisan base above the national value for that party's 2000 presidential nominee. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points higher for George W. Bush than the national value of 49.7%. Similarly, a district with a D+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points higher for Al Gore than the national value of 50.3%. An X +00 indicates an evenly balanced district.
I would add OHCD16 if Count Regula finally retires.
The data *is* available, but not to the great unwashed like you and me. I'm going through and collecting it for the 88 counties for 2000, 2002 and 2004. The data is in formats where you must spend a lot of time reformating and tieing out.
I finished Butler county over the weekend, and reported two races (one in 2000 and one in 2002) where the totals didn't tie out to the detail.
I've been talking with a guy at the Ohio Democratic Party and shock shock ... they don't have this data either! They do have it ... on paper. No wonder we can't win races around here with these chuckleheads.
Sorry ... all this offends my 20+ years in computers.
I'm working from the biggest to the smallest counties and the trick will be to get the data from the small ones.
Don't know if you've gotten to it yet, Paul, but Lake County has great data available online. You need to copy and paste into Excel, but it pastes easily and formats quickly.
Best part is they break it down to precint level and give totals for each ward and city or township. The website needs a little design help, but the data is great.
I'm going to move this conversation to an Open Thread.
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